South Korea renewable capacity overtakes coal for first time

South Korea’s installed renewable energy capacity has surpassed its coal fleet for the first time, according to data from the Korea Power Exchange. As of October 21, renewable capacity stood at 41,040 MW, while coal capacity was recorded at 40,757 MW. This marks a narrow lead of 283 MW in favor of renewables, a milestone highlighted by pv magazine.

The figures reflect the current state of installed generation assets rather than actual power output. While the capacity crossover is a notable structural shift in the grid’s composition, it does not imply that renewables are currently supplying the majority of electricity. The data, sourced directly from the Korea Power Exchange, provides a snapshot of the infrastructure available to meet demand, distinguishing the total potential of the renewable fleet from the operational coal plants still in service.

Capacity Milestone

The recent crossover of coal capacity, while historically significant, represents only a portion of the broader generation mix. According to the Korea Power Exchange, renewable energy currently accounts for 25.4% of the country’s total installed capacity. This share indicates that while the renewable fleet has grown substantially, it remains a minority component within the overall infrastructure portfolio. The gap between this renewable share and the remaining 74.6% underscores that the grid still relies heavily on other sources to meet baseline demand and peak loads.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to dominate the non-renewable segment of the mix. The Korea Power Exchange records LNG capacity at 46,788 MW, which exceeds the renewable total by 5,748 MW. This disparity highlights that LNG remains the largest single source of installed generation capacity in South Korea. For grid operators, this means that while coal is being surpassed, the transition from fossil fuels to renewables is not yet complete, as the LNG fleet still holds a substantial lead in absolute terms.

The trajectory of these two fuel sources diverges sharply when examining recent trends. Between 2020 and 2025, renewable capacity expanded at an average rate of 3,504 MW per year. In contrast, LNG capacity grew at a much slower pace, averaging 807 MW per year over the same period. This difference in expansion speed means that renewable capacity is growing 4.3 times faster than LNG. Such a disparity in growth rates suggests that the relative position of renewables within the mix is shifting rapidly, with the gap to LNG narrowing year by year as new solar and wind assets come online.

Grid Expansion Targets

South Korea’s national energy strategy sets a specific goal for renewable generation capacity by the end of the decade. The government has established a target of 100 GW of renewable energy installed by 2030. Achieving this objective requires significant upgrades to the electrical infrastructure, as the current grid must accommodate a much larger volume of intermittent power sources. To support this growth, planning documents outline distinct hosting capacity targets for both high-voltage transmission lines and lower-voltage distribution networks.

The following table details the planned hosting capacity ranges for these two grid levels by 2030:

Grid Level	Target Hosting Capacity (GW)
Transmission Level	119 – 171
Distribution Level	84 – 110

These figures represent the maximum amount of renewable generation the grid can reliably absorb at each level without exceeding technical stability limits. The transmission-level target is notably higher, reflecting the need to integrate large-scale utility projects that feed directly into the high-voltage backbone. In contrast, the distribution-level target addresses the growing number of smaller, decentralized installations, such as rooftop solar and community wind farms, which connect to local substations and feeders. The wide range in both categories indicates that actual capacity will depend on specific grid reinforcement projects completed before 2030.

Connection limits further define how individual projects can plug into the system. At the distribution line level, solar connections are capped between 14 MW and 16 MW. This restriction helps prevent local voltage fluctuations that could affect nearby customers. For connections made directly at substations, the allowable solar capacity is higher, ranging from 50 MW to 60 MW. These tiered limits ensure that grid operators can manage power flows safely while allowing for the expansion of both small and medium-sized renewable assets across the country.

Storage and Solar Outlook

The Korea Power Exchange projects that renewable capacity will overtake LNG within two to three years. This forecast relies on the continued rapid expansion of solar assets, which have maintained a consistent installation pace recently. Specifically, 3.1 GW of new solar capacity was added in 2024, with an identical 3.1 GW added in 2025. The Export-Import Bank of Korea forecasts another 3.5 GW of solar installations in 2026, indicating that the growth trajectory remains robust heading into the next fiscal year.

To manage the intermittency of this expanding solar fleet, grid operators are deploying large-scale battery storage. The Korea Power Exchange has outlined a tender for energy storage systems, specifying a mainland allocation of 1,100 MW with a capacity of 6,600 MWh. A separate 80 MW allocation is designated for Jeju Island. These storage contracts will run for a duration of 15 years, providing long-term revenue certainty for developers. The commissioned deadline for these projects is set for February 2029.

This storage infrastructure is critical for grid stability as the share of renewable generation rises. Batteries can absorb excess solar output during peak production hours and discharge it when demand spikes or generation drops. By smoothing out the variability inherent in solar power, these systems help prevent voltage fluctuations and ensure reliable power delivery to consumers. The specific split between mainland and Jeju allocations reflects the distinct grid needs of the main peninsula and the island’s isolated microgrid. As the renewable fleet continues to grow, the integration of such storage capacity will become increasingly vital for maintaining the balance between supply and demand across South Korea’s electrical network.

Policy and Access Reform

• Grid connection rights are tied to the reformed renewable portfolio standard starting January 2027
• Competitive bidding replaces the previous first-come, first-served basis for grid access
• The winner of the energy storage tender will be announced in November

The shift to competitive bidding for grid access marks a structural change in how developers secure interconnection slots. Previously, the first-come, first-served model often led to bottlenecks, where early applicants secured capacity regardless of project readiness or technical merit. Under the new framework, connection rights are explicitly linked to the reformed renewable portfolio standard, which takes effect in January 2027. This alignment ensures that grid access is granted to projects that meet specific regulatory and performance criteria, rather than simply those that filed earliest.

This mechanism is designed to streamline the queue for renewable projects by prioritizing viable, compliant assets. By integrating connection rights with the portfolio standard, the system aims to reduce administrative delays and ensure that the grid expansion targets discussed earlier are met with technically sound installations. The timing of the energy storage tender winner announcement in November provides a near-term data point for how this new competitive regime is functioning in practice. Observers will look to this outcome to gauge the efficiency of the bidding process before the broader regulatory changes fully take hold next year.

What to watch

The primary benchmark for future solar expansion remains the First Renewable Energy Basic Plan, which sets a target of adding 56.2 GW of new capacity. As the competitive bidding framework for grid access takes effect in January 2027, the pace at which projects secure interconnection will determine how quickly this cumulative figure materializes. Ultimately, the distance between current installation rates and this 56.2 GW goal will define the success of South Korea’s long-term renewable strategy.