Intertek CEA projects US solar pricing recovery to $0.34–$0.38/W

Intertek CEA projects that US solar pricing will recover to a range of $0.34/W to $0.38/W. The firm estimates total US inverter production capacity at 85 GW. This capacity figure matches the expected combined demand for photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems by 2028, according to Intertek CEA.

Policy Landscape

• US President Donald Trump signed OBBBA into law in 2025.
• OBBBA shortened Section 48E ITC access time and restricted foreign entities of concern.
• As of September 2026, the US market is subject to an FCC inverter ban and a Section 232 tariff.
• Bulk Power System Executive Order 14420 restricts critical power equipment imports.
• Developers executed 200 GW of safe-harbor projects through 2025.
• Chinese switchgear supply accounts for 8% of total US imports.

Trade Measures and Imports

Auxin Solar initiated a 2022 anti-circumvention request targeting four Southeast Asian nations, a move that preceded a significant surge in regional module shipments. Imports from these countries expanded to over 3 GW per month in 2023 and climbed above 5 GW per month by the end of the first half of 2024. In May 2024, the Solar 3 AD/CVD investigation concluded by imposing duties ranging from 34% to 652% on modules from those four nations.

Chinese large power transformers currently account for 2% of total US imports from 2025 to the present.

Market Economics

Intertek CEA estimates that US polysilicon annual capacity currently sits between 7 GW and 14 GW. This raw material bottleneck influences downstream pricing, particularly as spot pricing for available supply options remains north of $0.40/W.

For manufacturers, the Section 45X tax credit offers a direct financial incentive, providing $0.07/W for domestic module production. While integrated manufacturers could see profits increase by $0.02/W compared to pre-Section 232 pricing levels, the overall cost of a fully domestic value chain remains high. Prices for such fully domestic configurations exceed $0.50/W, a premium that contrasts sharply with the broader market recovery projected to land in the $0.34/W to $0.38/W range.

Cost Component	Price Level
Spot Pricing (Supply Options)	> $0.40/W
Full Domestic Value Chain	> $0.50/W
Section 45X Credit (Module Production)	$0.07/W
Integrated Manufacturer Profit Boost	$0.02/W

Regulatory Mechanics and Supply Chain Workarounds

The FCC inverter ban permits continued use of existing models with prior authorization and allows Section 45X PTC-qualified inverters, a provision Intertek CEA deems low risk given the industry’s capacity to expand low-capital production. Bulk Power System Executive Order 14420 leaves photovoltaic modules out of its named equipment list, though the Department of Energy retains authority to widen the scope to address other supply chain dependencies. Intertek CEA assesses this as a moderate risk, noting that high-voltage equipment is rarely supplied from China in substantial quantities.

To navigate the new Minimum Import Price (MIP) and Ad Valorem Tariff framework, integrated manufacturers with domestic cell or module production alongside overseas cell or wafer facilities hold a strategic advantage. Under this structure, a module maker purchases imported cells at the MIP while the cell maker pays a nominal processing fee leveraging the Section 45X PTC. The overseas cell maker then buys the module and sells it to a US developer, a mechanism Intertek CEA says makes pricing at mid-$0.30/W feasible. This approach allows overseas companies to achieve high margins as MIPs exceed established import prices in non-AD/CVD-impacted countries.

The Section 232 tariff aims to protect the US polysilicon sector from lower-cost overseas producers but does not provide a meaningful demand-side driver for that material. Intertek CEA suggests a win-win scenario could emerge if a process satisfies UFLPA obligations, lowers MIP exposure, and creates a stronger driver for expanding US polysilicon production.

What to watch

Meaningful directives regarding the Bulk Power System Executive Order may not emerge until late 2026. In the interim, precise regulatory limits on imported critical power equipment stay unspecified.