Data Centres Australia projects 3.9 GW Australian data centre capacity by 2030

Data Centres Australia forecasts that Australian data centre capacity will reach 3.9 GW by 2030, according to a report published by RenewEconomy. The industry body projects that 97 new facilities are planned for construction during this period, which would add 2.3 GW of new capacity to the existing infrastructure.

This updated projection represents a 20% increase compared to figures outlined in Data Centres Australia’s April report.

Construction momentum

Data Centres Australia reports that capacity under construction has doubled since its April report. In the same period, operational capacity rose by 100 MW. The industry body currently identifies 163 operating data centres across Australia, with a combined total capacity of 1.6 gigawatts.

Regional distribution

Melbourne leads Australia’s committed data centre capacity at 1.2 GW, compared with 700 MW in Sydney, according to Data Centres Australia. The report also notes that Sydney’s pipeline capacity fell by 3.6 GW and its early-stage capacity dropped by 4.4 GW. Meanwhile, the share of pipeline capacity located outside Sydney and Melbourne grew from 19% to 31% over a two-year period.

City	Committed Capacity (GW)
Melbourne	1.2
Sydney	0.7

Strategic positioning

Belinda Dennett, chief executive officer of Data Centres Australia, describes Australia as a highly attractive market where the country can lead the world as a benchmark. She highlights that if AI models are trained and fine-tuned locally, the environmental benefits are significant. Dennett notes that emissions for AI compute in Australia are up to four times lower than in fossil fuel markets. The industry body sees this as a key factor in global demand, forecasting 220 GW of additional compute demand by 2030.

Regulatory context

• Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has proposed regulations requiring data centres to demonstrate sufficient firmed electricity supply contracts.
• This initiative grants the Australian Energy Regulator the authority to reject data centres and enforce adherence to rules by imposing financial penalties under its current framework.
• If data centres delivering essential services require load-shedding, such actions must be coordinated with state governments.

In a report dated 27 October, Luminity noted that AEMO had 17 data centre projects, totaling 9 GW, in the connection queue, whereas Green Energy Markets estimated that constructing a new coal-fired power station for one facility would incur costs of $15–20 billion. A subsequent report on 29 October highlighted that AEMO listed 225 projects under development with an aggregate capacity of 67 GW.

Grid constraints and cost implications

Transgrid reports that the Western Sydney grid has reached its capacity limit, leaving no space for additional data centre connections. As of June, just five data centre projects, totaling 1.4 GW, are in the implementation phase. A Smart Energy Council report forecasts that Australian electricity bills will rise by $40 billion between 2029 and 2035 if 5 GW of data centres are connected without corresponding new generation capacity. Green Energy Markets estimates that building a new coal-fired power station to support a single data centre would cost between $15 billion and $20 billion.