India emissions projected to rise 4.4% as global fossil fuel output falls

India’s fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.4% this year, according to the Global Carbon Project.

In contrast, global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% this year.

Global Divergence

• The Global Carbon Project forecasts a 1.9% reduction in oil-related emissions for the current year.
• According to the Global Carbon Project, gas emissions should see a 0.3% drop this year.
• The Global Carbon Project anticipates a 0.6% increase in coal emissions for this year.
• The Global Carbon Budget Office cites geopolitical shocks as a contributing factor to the overall global decline.
• The Global Carbon Project reports that global emissions grew by 1.2% in 2025.

Pierre Friedlingstein, who leads the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, remarked that although the reduction in carbon emissions is "encouraging," reliance on geopolitical shocks does not constitute a durable climate strategy. Glen Peters, a research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, observed that a single-year decrease does not represent a peak unless it stems from structural shifts. Corinne Le Quere, a Royal Society Research professor at UEA's School of Environmental Sciences, suggested that further acceleration in progress could reverse the trend in global emissions within a few years.

Major Economies

The Global Carbon Project projects that major economies will see falling output in 2026, though the pace varies by region. China remains the largest single contributor to the global total, producing 32% of fossil fuel emissions. While its overall emissions are projected to decrease by 0.9%, coal-specific emissions are expected to rise slightly by 0.3%. The United States and the European Union are projected to see steeper declines of 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively, while Japan’s output is expected to drop by 1%.

Economy	Projected 2026 Emission Change
China	-0.9%
United States	-1.3%
European Union	-1.5%
Japan	-1.0%

China’s role extends beyond its own output; it accounts for half of the global emissions avoided through the adoption of renewables and electric vehicles.

Carbon Budget

The Global Carbon Project calculates that only 150 billion tonnes of carbon remain in the budget for capping global warming at 1.5°C. This allowance represents a span of fewer than four years at present emission levels, highlighting the extremely limited timeframe for additional cuts. Data from the project shows that emissions averted by wind and solar power increased from 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025. Forecasts suggest this value will climb to 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026.

Corinne Le Quere, a Royal Society Research professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, remarked that "Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions." The Global Carbon Project observes that a lasting global peak and subsequent drop in emissions may be "few years away." This prospective change corresponds with wider shifts in the transport sector, where electrified vehicles accounted for 10% of the global car fleet in 2025.

What to watch

The Global Carbon Project notes that a sustained global emissions peak and decline could be a "few years away," yet no timeline has been established for when global emissions will definitively peak. While clean technologies are contributing to emissions avoidance, the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is equivalent to less than four years of current output.