IEA projects 4,800 GW global renewable growth driven by energy security

The International Energy Agency’s new Renewables 2026 report indicates that global renewable capacity is projected to grow by 4,800 GW between 2026 and 2031. According to the IEA, this expansion is driven primarily by energy security considerations rather than climate goals.

This forecast represents a 57% increase in growth compared to the previous six years, as stated by the IEA. While climate targets remain a factor, the IEA notes that immediate energy reliability concerns are currently the dominant force behind the accelerated deployment of renewable technologies worldwide.

Regional Shifts

The IEA forecasts that Asia Pacific, excluding China, will add over 840 GW of renewable capacity between 2026 and 2031. This volume represents more than double the growth recorded during 2020-2025, prompting the agency to revise its forecast up by 15%. Consequently, China’s share of global renewable growth is projected to fall from over 60% in 2025 to 53%. This shift follows a near 55% year-on-year drop in Chinese solar additions during the first nine months of 2026, leading the IEA to cut its China forecast by 5%, or almost 116 GW.

Elsewhere, the US renewable forecast has increased by almost 40%, while the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa has risen by 54%.

Manufacturing Dynamics

India stands as the world's second-largest market for renewable capacity growth, trailing only China. The IEA notes that by 2031, India will be the only country besides China manufacturing all major solar components at scale. According to the IEA, more than 90% of Chinese solar manufacturers reported losses in 2026, and over 70 firms have filed for bankruptcy since 2024.

The energy mix driving this expansion is heavily weighted toward photovoltaics, which account for over three-quarters of new capacity additions. In terms of cost, hybrid auction results have secured electricity at below USD 75 per MWh.

Grid and Demand Impacts

The IEA estimates that had renewable growth since 2010 not occurred, 2025 global fossil fuel demand would have been 8% higher. This expansion has also improved access, with at least 70 million households gaining electricity via rooftop solar since 2022. Off-grid solar capacity is forecast to reach 80 GW by 2031, representing 2.5 times growth.

Wind and solar curtailment reached almost 200 TWh in 2025, a figure the IEA projects could exceed 800 TWh by 2031. To address these constraints, battery applications in grid queues are exceeding 1,500 GW, an increase of 900 GW in a single year.

Background

In a report issued on 4 November 2026, Luminity noted that India’s renewable energy capacity hit 300 GW in the fourth quarter of 2026, while non-fossil fuel sources made up 50% of the nation’s installed capacity in 2025.

• India’s renewable electricity generation exceeded 500 TWh in 2025.
• Solar PV overtook hydropower to become India’s leading renewable power source in 2025.
• By September 2026, domestic solar PV module production capacity stood at 225 GW.
• The IEA forecasts that India’s renewable energy capacity will grow to 530 GW by 2030.
• Solar PV is anticipated to represent more than 80% of India’s total capacity additions through 2030.
• According to the IEA, India is set to become the world’s second-largest wind equipment manufacturer by 2030.
• In 2025, renewable energy additions stopped coal imports from increasing by 110 million tonnes.
• Between 2011 and 2025, renewable electricity saved India over USD 100 billion in import spending.
• The IEA predicts India’s savings on renewable import expenditure will more than double by 2030.
• By 2030, renewables are projected to supply 35% of India’s electricity demand.

These statistics, outlined in an earlier report, establish the baseline for evaluating current global growth projections.

What to watch

The IEA projects global renewable capacity will reach 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030. However, the agency notes that the COP28 tripling target is not reached in the main case, remaining possible only under a 2031 accelerated scenario. No specific timeline beyond that accelerated case is provided for meeting the target.