Global Carbon Budget projects 0.4% fossil fuel emission drop in 2026

Published concurrently with the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, on November 10, the Global Carbon Budget forecasts that 2026 will mark the hottest year in recorded history. The report indicates that emissions from coal, oil, and gas combustion are expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026. This reduction would result in total fossil fuel emissions reaching 38.2 billion tonnes of CO₂.

Drivers of the Decline

The 0.4% drop marks the first comparable annual decline since 2020, when the pandemic drove a similar reduction. This year’s decrease stems from two distinct forces. First, the expansion of solar and wind power, along with the adoption of electric vehicles, is displacing fossil fuel use. Clean technologies are currently meeting approximately two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.

Second, geopolitical tensions have directly affected supply. Conflict involving Iran and the disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher, which in turn curbed oil consumption.

Despite this decline, the remaining carbon budget is finite. At current emission rates, the remaining allowance represents less than four years of consumption.

Sector-Specific Projections

The overall 0.4% decrease conceals substantial variances among different fuel categories. In 2026, solar and wind power are forecast to prevent 4.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions, marking a dramatic jump from the 280 million tonnes avoided in 2010. This substitution effect stands in contrast to the path taken by fossil fuels. Emissions linked to oil are anticipated to drop by 1.9%, a result of the energy-price surge triggered by the Iran conflict. Natural gas emissions are expected to decline by 0.3%. In opposition, coal emissions are poised to climb by 0.6%, demonstrating that the total global decrease does not signify a consistent cut across all primary energy sources.

Fuel Source	Projected 2026 Change
Solar & Wind Avoidance	4.6 billion tonnes
Oil	-1.9%
Natural Gas	-0.3%
Coal	+0.6%

Regional Divergence

• Forecasts indicate a 0.9% reduction in China’s fossil-fuel emissions for 2026.
• Emissions from fossil fuels in India are anticipated to increase by 4.4% in 2026.
• This projected 2026 increase for India surpasses its 3.5% mean yearly growth rate recorded over the last ten years.
• China represents roughly 32% of worldwide fossil-fuel emissions.
• The residual carbon allowance for capping temperature rise at 1.5°C is calculated at 150 billion tonnes.

Researcher Warnings on Reversal Risks

Scientists caution that oil usage and associated emissions may spike again should geopolitical conflicts subside and energy costs drop. This possibility highlights the difference between a reduction rooted in lasting technological change and one resulting from temporary high prices or supply shortages. The study indicates that the present decrease has not yet confirmed a long-term downward trajectory.

What to watch

While fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall, total global CO₂ emissions including land-use changes, deforestation, and peat fires are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026. This represents an increase from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.