CEEW projects India solar parts market to reach $7.8 billion by 2028

The Centre for Energy Efficiency and Water (CEEW) projects India’s solar panel component market will expand to $7.8 billion by March 2028. This estimate marks a rise from a $3.6 billion valuation recorded in September 2026.

The analysis covers six specific components: solar glass, aluminium frames, copper ribbons, encapsulant sheets, backsheets, and junction boxes.

Capacity and Demand Gaps

According to CEEW, India’s module manufacturing capacity hit 228.5 GW by September 2026, significantly surpassing the projected annual module demand of 67 GW. Nevertheless, the domestic annual production potential for specific components differs substantially, spanning from 20 GW for solar glass up to 153 GW for junction boxes. CEEW anticipates that frames, ribbons, and encapsulants will satisfy demand by March 2027, whereas solar glass may not reach equilibrium until March 2028. Junction boxes currently fulfill existing demand requirements.

Import Dependencies and Tariffs

According to CEEW figures, the annual rate of glass import growth reached 63% from FY21 to FY26, pushing the total value up from $129 million to $1.48 billion. During that same timeframe, frame imports saw an annual expansion of 88%, and junction box imports rose by 92% annually. China stands as the main provider of these materials, accounting for 66% of India’s glass purchases and 70% of its frame acquisitions in FY26.

Anti-dumping duties applied to glass, frames, and EVA encapsulants stay active through 2029. In parallel, China ended its VAT refund on photovoltaic exports in April 2026.

Policy Recommendations

• CEEW recommends assigning dedicated Harmonised System customs codes to the six components before the Union Budget 2027-28, as they currently lack specific codes.
• The report urges the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, BIS, and industry stakeholders to establish uniform testing standards.
• CEEW proposes adding these six components to the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers by January 2028.
• The organization suggests extending Domestic Content Requirement rules to cover these components starting January 2028.

CEEW notes that no specific timeline exists for when manufacturers will adopt uniform testing practices.

Background

India’s solar capacity has expanded from 2.8 GW in 2014 to 172 GW currently, according to Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy Pralhad Joshi. Regulatory frameworks, such as the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers of Solar Photovoltaic Modules Order issued on 2 January 2019, have guided this growth. Luminity explained the ALMM structure, noting that List-III for ingots and wafers takes effect from 1 June 2028. Rooftop plants under the PM Surya Ghar subsidy also require modules made in India using Indian cells.

CEEW notes no new backsheet capacity is planned due to the industry move toward glass-glass modules. Meanwhile, Borosil Renewables expects India’s domestic solar glass production capacity to reach 7,900 TPD by March 2027, as Luminity reported on 30 October.

What to watch

Rishabh Jain, Fellow at CEEW, notes that while India has proven it can assemble modules at scale, the next test is manufacturing parts at scale with consistent quality. CEEW states that realizing the projected market growth depends on planned plants commissioning on schedule and maintaining demand certainty.