US solar module imports drop 37.7% in first half of 2026

US solar module imports totaled 12.7 GW in the first half of 2026, marking a 37.7% year-on-year decline, according to InfoLink. Cell imports followed a similar trajectory, reaching 10.6 GW from January to July 2026, down 30% from the same period last year.

Shifting Import Origins

Imported solar module sources saw a major shift in the first half of 2026 due to a drop in Southeast Asian volumes. Regional module imports began at 1.4 GW in January but decreased to 0.6 GW by July. Conversely, African module imports climbed to 1.3 GW in July, establishing Africa as the top source for imported modules during that month.

Domestic Capacity Buffer

US module nameplate capacity is expected to exceed 90 GW in 2026. Alongside this, over 20 GW of domestic cell production capability is currently under development. These growing local manufacturing facilities, when paired with existing US module shipments and stockpiles, serve as a cushion reducing reliance on foreign goods.

Regulatory Deadlines and Inquiries

• Section 232 measures were announced on August 6 and take effect December 4, imposing origin-neutral tariffs on polysilicon and derivatives.
• Under the OBBBA tax credit phase-out, projects starting construction after July 4, 2026, must operate by the end of 2027.
• The safe harbor rule permits projects that started before this deadline to operate by 2029 or 2030.
• An anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) circumvention inquiry has been launched regarding imports from Ethiopia.

Supply Chain Relocation and Compliance Hurdles

The decrease in imports from Southeast Asia mirrors the migration of manufacturing capabilities triggered by antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) levied on those areas. Producers have moved operations to African nations like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt, where new production capacity became active swiftly in the first half of 2026. Imports of cells from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are holding steady, yet the shortfall in domestic cell production is anticipated to continue, making imported cells hard to substitute in the immediate future.

Compliance obstacles for China-associated capacity are mounting under regulations concerning material aid from prohibited foreign entities (PFEs). The Section 232 interim final rule sets distinct benchmarks for evaluating stockpiling and imposes quota limits. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) speeds up the elimination of Section 48E and 45Y tax credits. Early projections indicate that the ground-mounted PV pipeline might offer a demand buffer for upcoming capacity expansions, although the medium- to long-term market outlook and prospects for domestic manufacturing stay highly unpredictable. Industry focus is turning to potential extensions of subsidy frameworks as the US PV supply chain transitions from downstream modules to upstream wafers.

Specific Trade Measures and Supply Chain Details

The Section 232 measures impose minimum import prices on covered polysilicon imports and an additional ad valorem tariff on derivative products, regardless of country of origin. This origin-neutral approach shrinks opportunities for tariff arbitrage through production relocation.

While Southeast Asian imports fell, trade measures previously covered Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, before expanding to Indonesia and Laos. The AD/CVD circumvention inquiry involving Ethiopia is expected to narrow options for further relocation.

What to watch

Import volumes could see additional drops beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026.