Squadron Energy says anti-renewables populism is largest unpriced risk

Squadron Energy’s Dan Newlan argues that anti-renewables populism, rather than government policy, represents the largest unpriced risk in renewable energy development portfolios. He notes a consensus among developers that this sentiment poses a tangible commercial threat to the sector.

Newlan points to the Victorian Labor government’s decision to scrap a renewable energy zone as evidence of this dynamic. He states that a community driver influenced that policy shift, highlighting how local opposition creates real-world risks for renewable energy companies.

Polling trends in Victoria

• 60.3 per cent of western Victoria residents support local wind projects, according to Essential Media.
• 11 per cent of residents in the region oppose wind farms.
• Support for local wind projects rose from 57.5 per cent at the start of 2026.
• Fears regarding consultation, land use, fire risks, and transition burden rose to between 50 and 69 per cent.

Cancellations and political impact

Squadron Energy reports that social pressure has forced the cancellation of 20 projects in Victoria’s Central-North Renewable Energy Zone. The breakdown of these cancellations is as follows:

Project Type	Number Cancelled
Wind	9
Battery/Solar	11
Total	20

The Victorian Labor government subsequently scrapped the Central-North REZ, a policy shift that Squadron Energy attributes to community drivers influencing political decision-making.

New South Wales support and investment

In central west NSW, recognition of local benefits from wind projects has increased by 17 per cent, while overall support for those projects rose by 8 per cent.

Squadron Energy spent $3.2 million on a wastewater treatment plant in western NSW. The company notes that support for its operations in this region has risen by 23 per cent.

Mobilizing local supporters and managing opposition tactics

Squadron Energy head of corporate and community relations Dan Newlan detailed specific counter-strategies employed to manage activist campaigns, citing the 1.3 gigawatt Pikedale wind project in Queensland as an example. Upon the project’s announcement, activist groups and a local MP launched opposition on radio. Newlan stated the company quickly mobilized trusted local supporters to write letters to the editor and form a delegation to meet the MP. This rapid response resulted in negative coverage stopping, the opposition’s Facebook group dying, and the MP returning to a neutral position.

At the 690 megawatt Ballyrogan wind project site in Tayoon, a community forum was hijacked by opponents who subsequently targeted the developer in local media. In response, Squadron Energy adopted a strategy of selective non-response, moving consultations to smaller pop-up events to shift engagement onto its own terms rather than disengaging entirely. Newlan emphasized that this approach allows the company to maintain presence while avoiding the "shouting down" dynamics common in town hall meetings.

The polling data underpinning these strategies comes from three Essential Media surveys commissioned over the last nine months. The most recent poll, conducted in western Victoria, the base of the protest group Farmers Fightback, recorded the 60.3 per cent support figure. Newlan noted that while national social licence for renewables is trending downward, sentiment in central west NSW is improving as residents begin to see promised local benefits, a trend that has lifted support for the developer itself.

What to watch

The immediate focus for Squadron Energy’s development pipeline centers on two major projects in Queensland and New South Wales. The company is currently building the 1.3 GW Pikedale wind project in Queensland. In New South Wales, it is planning the 690 MW Ballyrogan wind project at Tayoon.

Dan Newlan, Squadron Energy’s head of corporate and community relations, warns that while current opposition levels are not yet driving overall support down, the specific concerns remain a signal of potential future risk if not addressed. He notes that a small organized group can exert considerable influence over a project or an entire renewable energy zone. The company’s efforts to mitigate these risks include ongoing community investments, such as the renovation of an aged care home, though no timeline has been provided for the completion of that specific work.