EIA projects renewables to hit 40% of US capacity, surpassing gas

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that renewables will account for 40.4% of total U.S. generating capacity, up from 37.7%. This forecast appears in the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly,” a report that Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, describes as reinforcing the theme that the growth of solar, wind, and battery storage has become unstoppable.

The EIA reports that renewables represented 28.1% of total U.S. electrical generation through August 2026, an increase from 26.2%.

Generation Trends

The EIA reports that total electricity generated from renewable sources rose 10.2% year over year during the first two-thirds of 2026. Utility-scale solar saw the steepest climb, with generation up 20.0% compared to the same period last year. Small-scale solar, typically associated with residential and commercial rooftop installations, contributed a 12.0% increase in output.

Wind power generation expanded by 7.8% year over year, while hydropower recorded a 4.2% rise. Geothermal generation also grew, adding 3.8% to its output during this period.

Output and Capacity Growth

• Wind generated 333,367 GWh, accounting for 10.6% of total U.S. generation.
• Solar generated 329,119 GWh, representing 10.5% of total U.S. generation.
• Hydropower produced 180,940 GWh (5.7% of total generation).
• Biomass contributed 29,917 GWh (1.0% of total generation).
• Geothermal produced 10,766 GWh (0.34% of total generation).
• Utility-scale solar capacity grew by 27,141.7 MW between September 2025 and August 2026.
• Small-scale solar capacity increased by 6,526.1 MW in the same period.
• Wind capacity expanded by 9,979.1 MW.
• Utility-scale battery storage capacity added 17,586.9 MW.

Wind held a slight lead in total energy delivered, but solar was a close second, with both sources contributing roughly one-tenth of all electricity.

On the capacity front, utility-scale solar dominated new additions, with nearly 27,000 MW added over the year. This growth outpaced both wind and small-scale solar expansions.

Fossil and Nuclear Shifts

According to the EIA, natural gas electrical output increased by 2.6% from January through August 2026, while nuclear generation rose by 1.3% over the same period. In contrast, coal-fired generation declined by 8.7% during the first two-thirds of the year.

The EIA reports that coal capacity decreased by 2,703.4 MW between September 2025 and August 2026. This reduction coincided with a significant expansion in gas infrastructure, as natural gas capacity grew by 5,316.0 MW over the same twelve-month window. Nuclear capacity remained unchanged during this period, holding steady despite the modest increase in its generation share.

Offshore Wind and Storage Projections

The EIA projects utility-scale solar will add 44,603.1 MW by August 31, 2027, expanding its share of total capacity from 13.4% to 16.5%. Wind capacity is forecast to grow by 8,312.3 MW, which includes 3,355.0 MW of offshore wind, raising its share from 13.4% to 13.5%. Hydropower, biomass, and geothermal are expected to contribute an additional 201.9 MW. Battery energy storage capacity is projected to increase by 23,656.2 MW, a 43.7% rise, bringing the total to 77,753.2 MW. The SUN DAY Campaign estimates small-scale solar will add at least 6,000 MW, assuming a pace similar to the past five years, since the EIA provides no specific forecast for that segment. Including small-scale solar, renewable installed capacity would reach approximately 550,000 MW, surpassing the projected 518,312.8 MW for natural gas.

What to watch

According to the EIA’s projections extending to August 31, 2027, utility-scale renewable energy capacity is set to expand by 53,117.3 MW. During this same interval, fossil fuel capacity is forecast to drop by 1,997.0 MW. The agency predicts that no additional nuclear generating capacity will be added by that deadline.

Ken Bossong, the executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, observed that the proportion of the country’s power generation and installed capacity derived from fossil fuels and nuclear sources is steadily decreasing. Although large-scale projects account for the anticipated increase, the EIA has not issued a prediction for small-scale solar capacity growth for the upcoming 12 months. As of August 31, 2026, the total installed small-scale solar capacity was 63,192.6 MW.