China polysilicon output falls to 105,000 MT in October

China’s polysilicon production declined to 105,000 metric tons in October, according to data from the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. This figure marks a drop from September’s output of 120,400 metric tons, as reported by pv magazine.

Price Recovery

• China Mono Premium price stood at CNY 38.786 ($5.80) per kilogram on October 13, according to OPIS data.
• The same measure translated to CNY 0.081 per watt-peak on that date.
• Prices rose 21.6% from the year-to-date low recorded in July, per OPIS.
• The Global Polysilicon Marker was $19.234 per kilogram on October 13, OPIS reported.
• That marker had held steady at $19.312 per kilogram throughout September.
• No timeline has been provided for the resolution of legal disputes surrounding long-term supply contracts.

Downstream Component Costs

Module prices have remained largely flat while upstream input costs have climbed, squeezing margins across the supply chain. The table below outlines key Chinese solar component prices as of mid-October.

Component	Price	Change
Ex-works China TOPCon 645 Wp module	CNY 0.703/Wp	N/A
FOB China mainstream TOPCon 645 Wp module	$0.107/Wp	Down 0.93% from September
FOB China n-type M10 wafer	N/A	Up 23.14% since early August
FOB China n-type M10 cell	N/A	Up 18.41% since early August

While module prices show minimal movement, wafer and cell prices have risen significantly since August. Meanwhile, imported TOPCon module spot prices held steady at $0.290/W throughout September, according to OPIS.

Uncertainty over policy implementation delays firm procurement commitments, making it difficult for buyers to lock in long-term pricing.

Installation Trends

China’s solar deployment pace has slowed sharply, with the National Energy Administration reporting that 11.04 GW of capacity was added in August. This figure represents a 21.6% month-on-month decline, continuing a broader downward trend evident in the first eight months of 2026. During that period, cumulative installations reached 97.19 GW, a drop of 57.86% compared to the same timeframe in the previous year.

The estimated full production cost for polysilicon stands at approximately CNY 43 per kilogram, a level that pressures margins further as installed volumes fall. Meanwhile, the imported TOPCon module spot price was recorded at $0.293 per watt on October 13, according to OPIS.

Supply Chain Dynamics and Market Structure

Manufacturers are advocating for polysilicon pricing to align with the estimated total production expense of approximately CNY 43/kg, yet downstream purchasers persist in rejecting elevated bids. Realized deals stay sparse, with industry reports suggesting that premium-priced transactions primarily consist of export-oriented output or unique commercial setups, where vendors sell polysilicon to established long-term clients and later acquire wafers from those same partners. OPIS noted spot sales nearing $27/kg, though quantities were minimal, which diminished the proportion of high-value trades and applied mild downward force to the weekly index.

As the December 4 rollout of Section 232 nears, the majority of polysilicon needed by American-centric supply networks appears to have already been contracted, rendering fresh orders highly price-conscious. Domestic U.S. polysilicon still presents an opportunity for price increases, as certain downstream buyers have expressed willingness to commit to modest quantities at comparatively steep rates, driven partly by the belief that locally sourced material could confer extra benefits to firms holding approved U.S. onshoring initiatives. Beyond the United States, producers continue to grapple with sluggish demand and fiscal strain. According to a trade insider, specific non-U.S. polysilicon manufacturers are investigating alternate sales channels, such as manufacturers setting up overseas plants backed by Chinese capital and producers located in India.

What to watch

Market participants are bracing for a sharp contraction in supply as expected monthly polysilicon output drops to 80,000 metric tons from December through February.

Forward imported TOPCon module prices are hovering around $0.372/W for the first and second quarters of 2027. The expected cost for fully imported utility-scale modules is projected to reach $0.40/W to $0.42/W following the December 4 implementation of Section 232.