China’s Solar Cell and Wafer Exports Surge Amid Panel Decline
China’s solar export market is undergoing a significant transformation. While panel shipments have declined, solar cell and wafer exports are experiencing explosive growth. This shift reflects changing global demand patterns and evolving solar supply chain dynamics across key markets.
Solar Export Breakdown: Cells and Wafers Lead Growth
Key statistics reveal this divergence:
- Solar cell exports increased 76% in H1 2025 (19 GW)
- Wafer shipments grew 26% (8.6 GW)
Together, these upstream products boosted China’s total solar exports by 11% despite a 5.2% drop in panels. Cells now represent 22% of China’s solar exports – the highest percentage on record.
India’s Growing Dependence on Chinese Solar Cells
India accounted for 52% of China’s cell export growth, nearly doubling imports to 21 GW. This surge stems from India’s domestic manufacturing imbalance, producing more panels than cells. Unable to meet demand internally, Indian manufacturers increasingly rely on Chinese cell imports.
Understanding the Panel Export Slowdown
Solar panel exports declined for the first time since China began separate reporting in 2022. Global shipments dropped by 6.7 GW with notable decreases in Europe and Brazil as markets worked through existing inventory.
Solar Technology Price Evolution
Price trends show dramatic declines since 2022:
- Chinese cell prices fell from $0.19/W to $0.03/W (84% decrease)
- Panel prices dropped from $0.29/W to $0.09/W
Interestingly, over half a panel’s cost now comes from non-cell components like glass and aluminum frames.
Global Solar Implications of China’s Shift
This trend signals a fundamental change in China’s role in the global solar market. Rather than just supplying finished panels, China is becoming a critical provider of solar foundational technology. For installers worldwide, these shifts could lower system costs if solar storage solutions continue advancing to complement these developments.
